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the past 15 years of G.D.P. predictions from professional forecasters — all made two years in advance — and you can see the results here:

worried too much about whether an overheated economy might spur inflation. Fed officials, for example, have been less aggressive in reducing interest rates than they later acknowledged was appropriate. Officials in Congress and the White House have sometimes obsessed over the deficit and failed to stimulate job growth.

the 1940s, ’50s and ’60s near full employment, with the unemployment rate at about 4

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